[Salon] US retired Lieutenant General Hertling: Military success alone does not determine the result in Iran

[Chas Freeman <cwfresidence@gmail.com>]

" [If] the political goal is not clear, no result will be obtained. . . . The tension with the allies may be one of the most critical breaking points of this process."

https://harici.com.tr/abdli-emekli-korgeneral-hertling-iranda-askeri-basari-tek-basina-sonucu-belirlemez/

"US retired Lieutenant General Hertling: Military success alone does not determine the result in Iran." (3/18/26)

Harici.com.tr

US retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling said that the military action against Iran produced effective results at a tactical level, but the strategic result is still uncertain. Warning that "no matter how successful it is, military force alone does not achieve the political goal", Hertling pointed out that the ultimate goal of the war has not been clarified.

Speaking on the "Command Post" program published on The Bulwark YouTube channel, retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, former European Commander of the US Army, presented a comprehensive assessment of the first three weeks of the ongoing military operation against Iran. Speaking to The Bulwark reporter Ben Parker, who hosted the program, Hertling summarized the current picture with the "status report" approach at the center of military planning.

Hertling framed with an anecdote from his years of office at the Pentagon, “Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told me 'tell me what happened in 60 seconds'. We can do the same for Iran today.” He then listed the main objectives of the US: “The US strategic goal is to destroy Iran's missile and unmanned aerial vehicle capabilities, neutralize its nuclear and military infrastructure, restore the Strait of Hormuz, and weaken Iran's capacity to establish influence through proxy forces.”

In his assessment of Iran's goals, Hertling said, "Iran's goal is to impose costs on the US and its allies, disrupt global energy markets, mobilize regional proxy networks and survive despite attacks that threaten the regime."

“Iran is not playing in military power, but in the weak point”

Speaking on the program, Ben Parker stated that the goals of the USA are mainly focused on eliminating military capabilities, while Iran follows a different strategy. "Iran's goal is to ensure the continuation of the regime and put political pressure on the US," Parker said.

Hertling expanded this assessment and drew attention to Iran's asymmetric strategy. “Iran knows that it cannot directly compete with the US military. For this reason, it targets weaknesses," Hertling said, adding: "The USA is a democracy. If the public is tired of war, it will be difficult for the government to continue the war. Iran is calculating that.”

Pointing out the economic dimension, Hertling said, "They can affect oil prices through the Strait of Hormuz. This allows them to exert indirect pressure on the global economy," he said.

"Iran uses Gulf countries as an element of pressure against Washington"

Hertling said that Iran is pursuing a strategy that targets not only the US, but also allies in the region. "Iran's attacks on the Gulf countries are not directly to punish these countries, but a tool for them to put pressure on the USA," Hertling said, noting:

“The airport is closing in Dubai, production is disrupted in Qatar, tourism and energy flows are damaged. These countries are starting to pressure Washington to 'stop this war'.”

Hertling emphasized that the global power of the USA stems not only from its military and economic capacity, but also from the alliance network. “The biggest advantage of the US is that it does not move alone. In the past, large coalitions have been established from Afghanistan to Iraq," he said.

“War without an ally, the most risky scenario”

In the program, US President Donald Trump's criticism of NATO and other allies also came to the fore. Parker reminded that Trump gave the message "no need for allies" in his latest statements.

Hertling criticized this approach and recalled Winston Churchill's quote: “Churchill said, 'The only thing worse than fighting the allies is fighting without an allies.' That's true for today.”

Regarding Europe's abstention, Hertling said, "Europeans were not part of this plan. The goals were not clear. Even the American public has not known exactly what is intended for three weeks," he said.

Referring to the ability sharing within NATO, Hertling said, "Every country contributes differently. Estonia offers special forces, Germany brings naval capacity. This structure works with coordination" he said.

“Tactical success does not mean strategic victory”

In the most critical part of the program, Parker asked Hertling to evaluate it, expressing the thesis that the war was "successful". Parker said Iran's military capacity was severely weakened, its nuclear program was regressed, and the regime would have to focus on domestic security.

Without rejecting this framework, but offering a broader perspective, Hertling said: “There is nothing wrong with what they say. But the question is: Is this a short-term or long-term solution?”

Hertling drew attention to the disconnect between military success and political outcome: "No matter how effective the operation is carried out, if the political goal is not clear, no result will be obtained."

Emphasizing that the power structure in the Middle East is based on institutions, not people, Hertling said, "There is an institutional structure represented by Ayatullah in Iran. As long as this structure remains standing, the regime will continue," he said.

“Both options are risky: Either climb or retreat”

Hertling said that in the current situation, the US administration is facing two basic options: “Either they will deepen the conflict with more military power or they will declare victory and withdraw.”

Emphasizing that both of these options are risky, Hertling said, "Both roads are dangerous. Either you go into a long war or you leave with an unfinished result," he said.

Hertling said, “This war doesn't end when someone says 'it's over'. It will be more complicated afterwards," he said.

“Lesson from Vietnam: Military victory does not solve everything”

Hertling gave an example from the Vietnam War in his analysis. Reminding the dialogue between US officer Harry Summers and a Vietnamese commander, Hertling said:

“When the American officer said, 'We never beat you on the battlefield,' the Vietnamese commander replied, 'This may be true, but it doesn't matter.'

Based on this example, Hertling evaluated that "If military success does not reach the political goal, it loses its meaning".

“Russia's intelligence support is reflected on the field”

Answering the audience questions in the program, Hertling spoke clearly about the allegations that Russia provided intelligence support to Iran. “Russia and China have this capacity. This kind of information sharing is most likely happening," he said.

Hertling stated that Iran attacked US targets using this intelligence: "Radar facilities were hit, airports were targeted, refueling planes were damaged."

Referring to the attacks in which US soldiers lost their lives, Hertling said, "These attacks were aimed at sensitive targets. This shows that the quality of intelligence is high," he said.

“There is a high probability of an American presence on the field”

Answering the question about the role of special forces in the field at the end of the program, Hertling evaluated without sharing information directly. “In the past, there would be teams in the field in such operations. It is likely that there will be a similar situation today," he said.

Drawing attention to Israel's capacity to carry out operations within Iran, Hertling said, "We know that Israel can carry out operations at home. In this case, it would not be a surprise if other actors were on the field," he said.

“The economic front can determine the course of the war”

At the closing of the program, Hertling said that economic factors, not military, may be more decisive in the coming period, "Iran's attack capacity is increasing with economic means. This will become more obvious in the coming weeks," he said.

In addition, Hertling stated that the tension experienced by the US administration with the allies will also affect the course of the war and said, "The tension with the allies may be one of the most critical breaking points of this process."

US retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling said that the military action against Iran produced effective results at a tactical level, but the strategic result is still uncertain. Warning that "no matter how successful it is, military force alone does not achieve the political goal", Hertling pointed out that the ultimate goal of the war has not been clarified.

Speaking on the "Command Post" program published on The Bulwark YouTube channel, retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, former European Commander of the US Army, presented a comprehensive assessment of the first three weeks of the ongoing military operation against Iran. Speaking to The Bulwark reporter Ben Parker, who hosted the program, Hertling summarized the current picture with the "status report" approach at the center of military planning.

Hertling framed with an anecdote from his years of office at the Pentagon, “Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told me 'tell me what happened in 60 seconds'. We can do the same for Iran today.” He then listed the main objectives of the US: “The US strategic goal is to destroy Iran's missile and unmanned aerial vehicle capabilities, neutralize its nuclear and military infrastructure, restore the Strait of Hormuz, and weaken Iran's capacity to establish influence through proxy forces.”

In his assessment of Iran's goals, Hertling said, "Iran's goal is to impose costs on the US and its allies, disrupt global energy markets, mobilize regional proxy networks and survive despite attacks that threaten the regime."

“Iran is not playing in military power, but in the weak point”

Speaking on the program, Ben Parker stated that the goals of the USA are mainly focused on eliminating military capabilities, while Iran follows a different strategy. "Iran's goal is to ensure the continuation of the regime and put political pressure on the US," Parker said.

Hertling expanded this assessment and drew attention to Iran's asymmetric strategy. “Iran knows that it cannot directly compete with the US military. For this reason, it targets weaknesses," Hertling said, adding: "The USA is a democracy. If the public is tired of war, it will be difficult for the government to continue the war. Iran is calculating that.”

Pointing out the economic dimension, Hertling said, "They can affect oil prices through the Strait of Hormuz. This allows them to exert indirect pressure on the global economy," he said.

"Iran uses Gulf countries as an element of pressure against Washington"

Hertling said that Iran is pursuing a strategy that targets not only the US, but also allies in the region. "Iran's attacks on the Gulf countries are not directly to punish these countries, but a tool for them to put pressure on the USA," Hertling said, noting:

“The airport is closing in Dubai, production is disrupted in Qatar, tourism and energy flows are damaged. These countries are starting to pressure Washington to 'stop this war'.”

Hertling emphasized that the global power of the USA stems not only from its military and economic capacity, but also from the alliance network. “The biggest advantage of the US is that it does not move alone. In the past, large coalitions have been established from Afghanistan to Iraq," he said.

“War without an ally, the most risky scenario”

In the program, US President Donald Trump's criticism of NATO and other allies also came to the fore. Parker reminded that Trump gave the message "no need for allies" in his latest statements.

Hertling criticized this approach and recalled Winston Churchill's quote: “Churchill said, 'The only thing worse than fighting the allies is fighting without an allies.' That's true for today.”

Regarding Europe's abstention, Hertling said, "Europeans were not part of this plan. The goals were not clear. Even the American public has not known exactly what is intended for three weeks," he said.

Referring to the ability sharing within NATO, Hertling said, "Every country contributes differently. Estonia offers special forces, Germany brings naval capacity. This structure works with coordination" he said.

“Tactical success does not mean strategic victory”

In the most critical part of the program, Parker asked Hertling to evaluate it, expressing the thesis that the war was "successful". Parker said Iran's military capacity was severely weakened, its nuclear program was regressed, and the regime would have to focus on domestic security.

Without rejecting this framework, but offering a broader perspective, Hertling said: “There is nothing wrong with what they say. But the question is: Is this a short-term or long-term solution?”

Hertling drew attention to the disconnect between military success and political outcome: "No matter how effective the operation is carried out, if the political goal is not clear, no result will be obtained."

Emphasizing that the power structure in the Middle East is based on institutions, not people, Hertling said, "There is an institutional structure represented by Ayatullah in Iran. As long as this structure remains standing, the regime will continue," he said.

“Both options are risky: Either climb or retreat”

Hertling said that in the current situation, the US administration is facing two basic options: “Either they will deepen the conflict with more military power or they will declare victory and withdraw.”

Emphasizing that both of these options are risky, Hertling said, "Both roads are dangerous. Either you go into a long war or you leave with an unfinished result," he said.

Hertling said, “This war doesn't end when someone says 'it's over'. It will be more complicated afterwards," he said.

“Lesson from Vietnam: Military victory does not solve everything”

Hertling gave an example from the Vietnam War in his analysis. Reminding the dialogue between US officer Harry Summers and a Vietnamese commander, Hertling said:

“When the American officer said, 'We never beat you on the battlefield,' the Vietnamese commander replied, 'This may be true, but it doesn't matter.'

Based on this example, Hertling evaluated that "If military success does not reach the political goal, it loses its meaning".

“Russia's intelligence support is reflected on the field”

Answering the audience questions in the program, Hertling spoke clearly about the allegations that Russia provided intelligence support to Iran. “Russia and China have this capacity. This kind of information sharing is most likely happening," he said.

Hertling stated that Iran attacked US targets using this intelligence: "Radar facilities were hit, airports were targeted, refueling planes were damaged."

Referring to the attacks in which US soldiers lost their lives, Hertling said, "These attacks were aimed at sensitive targets. This shows that the quality of intelligence is high," he said.

“There is a high probability of an American presence on the field”

Answering the question about the role of special forces in the field at the end of the program, Hertling evaluated without sharing information directly. “In the past, there would be teams in the field in such operations. It is likely that there will be a similar situation today," he said.

Drawing attention to Israel's capacity to carry out operations within Iran, Hertling said, "We know that Israel can carry out operations at home. In this case, it would not be a surprise if other actors were on the field," he said.

“The economic front can determine the course of the war”

At the closing of the program, Hertling said that economic factors, not military, may be more decisive in the coming period, "Iran's attack capacity is increasing with economic means. This will become more obvious in the coming weeks," he said.

In addition, Hertling stated that the tension experienced by the US administration with the allies will also affect the course of the war and said, "The tension with the allies may be one of the most critical breaking points of this process."